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  各地人口调查结果初步显示,今年上半年全国各地的新生儿数量继续下降。

  Regional population surveys are showing early signs that the number of births continued to drop across the country in the first half of this year-but at different rates.

  各地新生儿数量下降

  据21世纪经济报道,按照国家统计局和当地统计局的要求,目前多地都在开展调研。近日,一些城市陆续公布了2019年上半年出生人口的相关数据,呈现总体下降趋势。

  Surveys in hospitals and communities in other areas, including Shaanxi, Anhui, Sichuan and Hebei provinces, also found a shrinking newborn population in the first half, with the rate of decrease ranging from 3 percent to 10 percent.从对陕西、安徽、四川、河北等地区医院和社区的调查中同样可以看出,今年上半年的新生儿数量有所下降,下降幅度在3%到10%之间。

  Chongqing reported about 68,400 births among a total population of about 31 million from January to May, a decrease of nearly 30 percent compared with the same period last year.

  据报道,今年1月至5月,净化工程网 ,重庆3100万人口中,新生人口约为6.84万,同比下降了约30%。

  In Weifang, Shandong province, health authorities said 55,800 babies were born in the first half of the year, down 13.4 percent year-on-year, Dazhong Daily reported.

  据《大众日报》报道,山东潍坊卫生部门表示,今年上半年共有5.58万名婴儿出生,同比下降13.4%。

  新生儿数量由什么决定

  华中科技大学人口所所长石人炳教授说,每年新生儿的数量很大程度上取决于生育率(fertility rate)和育龄女性的数量(the number of women of childbearing age)。

  The fertility rate required to maintain population levels is 2.1 children per woman.

  维持人口水平所需的生育率是平均每名女性生育2.1个子女。

  而在中国,这两个决定性因素(determinants)都在下降:

  The number of women aged 15 to 49 peaked in 2011 and has been declining since then, and the fertility rate is just below 1.7, according to the World Population Prospects 2019 report released by the United Nations in June.根据联合国今年6月发布的《世界人口展望2019》显示,15岁至49岁的女性数量在2011年达到顶峰,随后持续下降,生育率略低于1.7。

  The National Health Commission's population research center put the fertility rate at 1.55 last year, compared with an average of 1.65 in the past decade. The center said the peak since the launch of the second-child policy was 1.8.国家卫生委员会人口研究中心显示去年的生育率为1.55,过去十年的平均生育率为1.65。该中心表示,自二孩政策以来生育率的峰值为1.8。

  更多家庭不愿要孩子

  80后、90后不再把生孩子视为婚姻的重要组成部分,环保净化网,从而降低了生育率。还有很多人觉得很难平衡工作和生活之间的关系,往往会放弃要二胎的想法。

  The statistics bureaus in Yan'an, Shaanxi province, and Pingquan, Henan province, both said a major factor in declining birthrates was a lack of willingness to have children among couples of childbearing age due to the mounting costs of raising a child.陕西延安和河南平泉统计部门均表示,生育率下降的一个主要原因是抚养孩子的成本不断上升,育龄夫妇缺乏生育意愿。

  当地政府表示,近期公布的区域性数据显示了除全面二孩政策外,政府推出更多支持性措施的重要性,其中包括改善孕期护理和托儿所服务等,以鼓励生育。

  The trend revealed in regional data made public recently highlighted the need to roll out more supportive measures in addition to the universal second-child policy, including improved pregnancy care and nursery services, to encourage more births, local authorities said.

  全面二孩的确发挥了作用。国家统计局数据显示,2016年和2017年,我国出生人口分别为1786万人和1723万人,比“全面二孩”政策实施前的“十二五”时期年均出生人数分别多出142万人和79万人。

  Notes

  育龄妇女 women of child-bearing age

  低生育率 low fertility rate

  全面二孩政策 universal two-child policy

  二孩经济 second-child economy

  二孩奖励政策 two children incentive policies

  产假 maternity leave

  生育津贴 childbirth allowance